Markers and Margins
In venture capital and in alpine climbing, knowing when to charge and when to stay put is challenging. To help manage the psychology of risk as climbers and investors, we establish markers and margins.
On a recent expedition to Denali, the highest mountain in North America and one of the most extreme environments on the planet, BV Limited Partner, John Thomson and I set out to climb the Cassin Ridge on the South Face. The Cassin is among the world's classic glaciated alpine routes and involves a committing approach. On the Cassin Ridge, a successful summit is the best option – a retreat can be difficult and dangerous.
Johnny and I established several markers during our expedition preparation and on the climb to ensure a suitable risk margin. For example, we completed ten training climbs together from January through May in Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado, all in winter conditions.
Once on the mountain, we planned five days to ascend from the 7,200 Kahiltna Glacier landing strip to the 14,200 upper base camp on Denali, a measured pace that would aid our acclimatization. We also completed three climbs from 14,200 to 17,000 to establish confidence in our fitness and physiological readiness before committing to the Cassin Ridge.
Our final marker was a three-day weather window. The approach to the Cassin Ridge takes one day and the total vertical rise of the route is 9,000 - nearly two miles. Our training told us that 5,000 vertical feet of climbing per day was a reasonable expectation. We planned to spend one day on approach from 14,200, sleep at the base of the Ridge, bivy one night, then push to the summit and descend back to the 14k base camp on the third day.
Unfortunately, we never got a weather window that would give us sufficient margin for an attempt of the Cassin. It was a stormy 2023 season, and on this trip luck and timing were not in our favor. We discussed the possibility of a two-day push but decided against reducing our margin and instead opted to climb the West Buttress route to the top of Denali.
On June 9th, we completed the ascent from 14,200 to the 20,320 Summit in a single 11-hour roundtrip push. In addition, by maintaining an adequate margin, we had enough in the tank to support the rescue of two frost bitten climbers who needed assistance getting down the mountain.
Markers and Margins work in the VC business too, and I’ve used both as a founder and as an investor. We work with experienced founders to set product development, revenue and corporate milestones that can be used to gauge progress in their startup. These markers also inform follow-on investment decisions, mitigating our capital risk and providing clear guidance to our entrepreneurs on how progress should be measured.
Markers and Margins in venture investing and alpine climbing increase the likelihood of a venture-like return for our investors and returning from the summit with all ten fingers and toes intact.